Assignment 6A - Identifying Opportunities in Economic & Regulatory Trends
Economic Trends
1. Strengthening Global Demand
a) Link: JP Morgan
b) Information: Global GDP is expected to expand at a 4% rate by the end of 2018, in comparison to 3.7% in 2017. Also, India is growing faster than China for the first time in 25 years which means that the Chinese economy is maturing due to the increased growth in their middle class resulting in high demand for imports.
c) Prototypical Customer: People from other countries that don't have or doesn't produce well the goods & services from their homeland. Also, middle-class people that demand imported goods.
d) Limitation: Relative hard to exploit due to the different law and birocratic system as well as transport fee.
I see this opportunity because Indonesia, where I come from, has many comparative advantages in producing goods such as coffee, cloth, and snacks which could be introduced to other neighboring countries. Moreover, the increase in middle-class is felt in the society, especially in the capital city, where gadgets are common which affects the growing taste of Indonesia people in luxury goods.
2. Increase in the US Interest Rates
a) Link: The Balance
b) Information: It is expected that the federal government would increase the interest rate from 2.4% in 2018 to 2.9% in 2019 and to 3.4% in 2020.
c) Prototypical Customer: People that wanted to make money from investing in foreign exchange, in this relation towards the US dollars.
d) Limitation: Need to know when the other country would increase their own interest rate to save their own currency and need a capital budget to buy the US dollar before the interest rate rises. However, there is a reaction time between US's increase in interest rate and other country's where profit will be made.
I see this opportunity in trading in the foreign exchange because I feel and see that instability (changes) in one's country could result in profit. There are a lot of people that base their income solely from trading in the foreign exchange, and these days it's not hard to enter, however, the people with the fastest access to information are the ones that will succeed, and it is hard to do that.
Regulatory Changes
1. Weed Legalization
a) Link: Business Insider
b) Information: 13 states in America legalized weed, and experts predict that it will be legal in most states in a decade. Moreover, the wave of weed legalization in the USA had open up many discussion in other countries about whether or not they should legalize weed.
c) Prototypical Customer: People that have been taking weed illegally, people that wanted to try something new, and people that depend on weed (medicinal use).
d) Limitation: Considered as illegal drugs in many countries, however, the fact that the US legalize weed, it brought up the question of why weed is illegal the fact that alcohol is not.
I see this opportunity because there is a grey area in Indonesia whether the consumption of weed is legal or not since it is traditionally used in some cooking, and that weed sellers are all over tourist spot selling weed, like in Bali, without being afraid to be caught by the police. Definitely, this is something that Indonesian people would have to wait for 20+ years, as I predict.
2. Online Sales Tax
a) Link: Business News Daily
b) Information: The Supreme Court in South Dakota marked an end of 0% tax for online businesses. It is estimated that South Dakota lost $48 to $58 million in tax revenue.
c) Prototypical Customer: Online business owners.
d) Limitation: Many online business owners are scared since they are afraid that this reform could happen in other states, and the possible solution is for an online business to partner with one another to create a bigger firm with larger customer base if these laws are passed. The biggest limitation is to earn trust from the small online business partners and getting them to work harder in order to have a larger partnership.
I see this opportunity to be a middle-man for online business owners to find partners because I myself own an online business, and I feel the need for someone that will talk for 2 or more parties to create a partnership.
1. Strengthening Global Demand
a) Link: JP Morgan
b) Information: Global GDP is expected to expand at a 4% rate by the end of 2018, in comparison to 3.7% in 2017. Also, India is growing faster than China for the first time in 25 years which means that the Chinese economy is maturing due to the increased growth in their middle class resulting in high demand for imports.
c) Prototypical Customer: People from other countries that don't have or doesn't produce well the goods & services from their homeland. Also, middle-class people that demand imported goods.
d) Limitation: Relative hard to exploit due to the different law and birocratic system as well as transport fee.
I see this opportunity because Indonesia, where I come from, has many comparative advantages in producing goods such as coffee, cloth, and snacks which could be introduced to other neighboring countries. Moreover, the increase in middle-class is felt in the society, especially in the capital city, where gadgets are common which affects the growing taste of Indonesia people in luxury goods.
2. Increase in the US Interest Rates
a) Link: The Balance
b) Information: It is expected that the federal government would increase the interest rate from 2.4% in 2018 to 2.9% in 2019 and to 3.4% in 2020.
c) Prototypical Customer: People that wanted to make money from investing in foreign exchange, in this relation towards the US dollars.
d) Limitation: Need to know when the other country would increase their own interest rate to save their own currency and need a capital budget to buy the US dollar before the interest rate rises. However, there is a reaction time between US's increase in interest rate and other country's where profit will be made.
I see this opportunity in trading in the foreign exchange because I feel and see that instability (changes) in one's country could result in profit. There are a lot of people that base their income solely from trading in the foreign exchange, and these days it's not hard to enter, however, the people with the fastest access to information are the ones that will succeed, and it is hard to do that.
Regulatory Changes
1. Weed Legalization
a) Link: Business Insider
b) Information: 13 states in America legalized weed, and experts predict that it will be legal in most states in a decade. Moreover, the wave of weed legalization in the USA had open up many discussion in other countries about whether or not they should legalize weed.
c) Prototypical Customer: People that have been taking weed illegally, people that wanted to try something new, and people that depend on weed (medicinal use).
d) Limitation: Considered as illegal drugs in many countries, however, the fact that the US legalize weed, it brought up the question of why weed is illegal the fact that alcohol is not.
I see this opportunity because there is a grey area in Indonesia whether the consumption of weed is legal or not since it is traditionally used in some cooking, and that weed sellers are all over tourist spot selling weed, like in Bali, without being afraid to be caught by the police. Definitely, this is something that Indonesian people would have to wait for 20+ years, as I predict.
2. Online Sales Tax
a) Link: Business News Daily
b) Information: The Supreme Court in South Dakota marked an end of 0% tax for online businesses. It is estimated that South Dakota lost $48 to $58 million in tax revenue.
c) Prototypical Customer: Online business owners.
d) Limitation: Many online business owners are scared since they are afraid that this reform could happen in other states, and the possible solution is for an online business to partner with one another to create a bigger firm with larger customer base if these laws are passed. The biggest limitation is to earn trust from the small online business partners and getting them to work harder in order to have a larger partnership.
I see this opportunity to be a middle-man for online business owners to find partners because I myself own an online business, and I feel the need for someone that will talk for 2 or more parties to create a partnership.
Comments
Post a Comment